Despite a recent pullback from record highs, analysts at VanEck maintain a bullish outlook on gold, citing strong fundamentals and under-allocated investment portfolios.
Gold prices are holding steady above $3,300 an ounce following a modest and short-lived correction, consistent with trends seen over the past year. Though the metal has retreated from last month’s record high of $3,500, analysts say the rally is far from over.
According to Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager at the VanEck Gold and Precious Metals Fund, gold is now entering a consolidation phase, establishing a solid base above the $3,000 mark.
“The current dip is neither unexpected nor alarming,” Casanova wrote in a report published earlier this month. “Despite strong gains, the broader investment community continues to largely overlook gold.”
Casanova pointed to gold’s impressive performance—up 27% last year and 25.5% so far this year—but noted that only about 1% of global assets under management are allocated to the sector. She emphasized that investment demand remains well below historical peaks.
“When investors return to gold in a meaningful way—and the case for doing so is growing—the combined strength of increased investment flows and continued central bank buying could significantly lift prices,” she said. Casanova suggested that a return to 2020’s peak ETF holdings could correspond with a $600 per ounce price increase.
She recommended that investors begin building a long-term position in gold, advising a strategic allocation of approximately 5%. “We do not recommend trading in and out of this core position,” she added.
In a separate report, VanEck’s commodities team projected that gold could reach $4,000 an ounce by 2025, driven by renewed interest from Western investors and mounting economic uncertainties.
“Gold is positioned for continued strength amid tariff concerns, persistent inflation, and geopolitical risks,” the analysts noted. “These factors enhance gold’s role as a hedge against market volatility.”
Looking further ahead, the firm said gold prices could climb to $5,000 an ounce within the next five years. VanEck highlighted that gold has outperformed traditional asset classes over the past two decades.
“The long-term outlook for gold remains positive,” the report concluded. “Sustained geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policies, and inflationary pressures are expected to keep demand strong.”
