Gold remains one of the standout performers in global markets this year, even after retreating from a record high of $3,500 per ounce reached last month. Despite a wave of profit-taking triggered by easing trade tensions and a shift toward riskier assets, billionaire investor Ray Dalio is doubling down on the precious metal.
Dalio’s hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has disclosed a significant new stake in gold, signaling the firm’s confidence in the commodity’s long-term prospects. In its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Bridgewater reported the acquisition of roughly 1.1 million shares of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), valued at approximately $319 million.
Gold’s Enduring Appeal
Gold has served as a reliable store of value and medium of exchange for millennia. In modern financial markets, it remains a favored hedge against inflation, economic instability, and geopolitical risk. Analysts note that gold’s limited supply—virtually all the gold ever mined still exists—contributes to its unique status among investment assets.
While some investors hold physical gold in the form of bullion or coins, others seek exposure through financial instruments such as ETFs, derivatives, or shares of gold-mining firms. ETFs like GLD, which are backed by physical gold, offer a practical and secure way for both institutional and retail investors to participate in the gold market.
Inside the SPDR Gold Shares ETF
Launched as the first U.S.-listed ETF backed by a physical commodity, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gives investors direct exposure to the price movements of gold. Each share represents one-tenth of an ounce of physical gold held in HSBC’s vaults in London. As of now, GLD manages around $96.6 billion in assets, with an average daily trading volume of 11.8 million shares. The fund charges a management fee of 0.4% annually.
GLD shares have risen approximately 25.5% year-to-date, outperforming major U.S. equity benchmarks. The ETF’s surge has been fueled by rising investor demand amid global economic uncertainty and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Why Dalio Is Buying In
Bridgewater’s recent investment marks a renewed commitment to gold after exiting its previous holdings by the end of 2023. Dalio has consistently emphasized the importance of diversification, particularly in uncertain times.
“I believe a lot in diversification. I also think that people don’t typically have an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” Dalio said in a February interview with CNBC. “When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier.”
Dalio recommends allocating around 10% of a portfolio to gold, especially under current market conditions marked by inflation risks, unstable monetary policy, and rising geopolitical tensions.
The 2025 Gold Outlook
Analysts believe gold could continue to climb through 2025, even in the absence of heightened trade tensions. Goldman Sachs recently forecast that gold could reach $3,700 per troy ounce by the end of next year, citing central bank buying and anticipated interest rate cuts as key drivers. In a recession scenario, the firm sees prices potentially surging as high as $3,880.
Michael Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest, echoed that sentiment, saying the recent correction is part of a broader bullish trend. “There is nothing telling us that $3,500 is a top for gold,” he said.
Trevor Yates, a senior analyst at Global X ETFs, added that the recent pullback reflects investor positioning rather than any shift in fundamentals. “We continue to see robust physical-market demand, driven by central banks, coupled with rising stagflation concerns,” he said.
Options Market Signals Bullish Sentiment
Options activity surrounding GLD also points to strong bullish sentiment. As of the June 20, 2025 expiration, open interest in call options at the $306.00 strike price outnumbers puts by a ratio of 1.6 to 1. This positioning suggests that traders expect further gains for the ETF, reinforcing confidence in Dalio’s latest move.
The combined pricing of call and put options near the current strike implies a potential price movement of around 5%, placing GLD in a projected trading range of $291.20 to $320.60 by mid-year 2025.
The Takeaway
Ray Dalio’s latest investment underscores growing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid a turbulent global landscape. With geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and economic uncertainty continuing to dominate headlines, many investors are looking to gold not just for security, but for potential upside.
Whether for hedging or long-term capital appreciation, gold—particularly via ETFs like GLD—remains a compelling asset in the current environment.
