Goldman Sachs forecast that gold will continue to outperform silver, attributing the disparity to strong central bank demand for gold, which has structurally elevated the gold-silver price ratio. As a result, the investment bank does not anticipate silver catching up with the ongoing gold rally.
Currently, the gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are required to purchase one ounce of gold, stands at around 102. This is significantly higher than the ratio of about 84.7 a year ago.
“With Chinese solar production slowing due to oversupply, high recession risks, and strong central bank gold buying expected to persist in 2025, we foresee gold continuing to outshine silver,” the bank stated. However, it also noted that, due to the strong correlation in investment flows, renewed demand for gold in 2025 is likely to push silver prices higher as well.
So far in 2025, spot gold has surged more than 26%, reaching a record high of $3,500.05 per ounce in April. The rally has been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Meanwhile, silver prices are trading at $32.40 per ounce, up 12% this year.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish stance on gold, with a base-case price target of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and $4,000 by mid-2026. The bank also stated that if a recession accelerates ETF inflows, gold prices could reach $3,880 by year-end. In extreme risk scenarios—such as heightened concerns over Federal Reserve independence or shifts in U.S. reserve policy—gold could potentially hit $4,500 by the end of 2025.
All eyes are now on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming press conference after the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting concludes on Wednesday. Despite past tensions regarding Powell’s position, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Sunday that he has no intention of removing the Fed chair, whose term ends in about a year.
