Gold prices in India are expected to remain range-bound on Friday, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent trade agreements. The prices of 24-carat, 22-carat, and 18-carat gold have experienced a fourth consecutive winning streak, with the price of 10 grams of gold approaching the Rs 1,00,000 mark. However, fluctuations in demand for safe-haven assets are expected as the US dollar and Treasury yields have shown strong gains. An increase in the dollar and Treasury yields typically impacts gold demand negatively.
As of Friday morning, the MCX gold price stood at Rs 96,218 per 10 grams, reflecting a slight increase. The bullion was near its intraday high of Rs 96,245.
In contrast, MCX silver prices saw a decline, falling by Rs 241 to trade at Rs 96,271 per kilogram.
Geopolitical Developments Impacting Market Sentiment
The market’s cautious mood is being influenced by recent geopolitical developments. Following India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan attempted to strike several military targets across northern and western India. Key locations including Awantipura, Srinagar, Jammu, Pathankot, Amritsar, and others were targeted using drones and missiles. These attacks were successfully neutralized by India’s Integrated Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Grid and Air Defence systems. Evidence from the recovery of debris at multiple locations supports claims that these were coordinated attacks from Pakistan.
US-UK Trade Deal Boosts Dollar and Treasury Yields
On the international front, a major trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom has also added to market volatility. US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the deal, which is expected to stimulate both economies. Key sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and aviation—including major players like Boeing—stand to benefit from tariff revisions. This agreement provides the US with access to a new market in the UK, which is expected to boost revenues. Both nations have also agreed to reduce tariffs on imports from each other.
In response to this agreement, the US dollar index surged, hitting the 101 mark, setting it up for a third consecutive weekly gain. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield moved higher, trading at 4.36% early on Friday, marking its second consecutive weekly gain.
Recent Gold Price Movements in India
On Thursday, gold prices saw notable increases. The price of 24K gold rose by Rs 600 per 10 grams to Rs 99,600, while 22K gold increased by Rs 550 to Rs 91,300 per 10 grams. The price of 18K gold climbed by Rs 450 to Rs 74,700 per 10 grams.
For those looking to buy in larger quantities, the price of 100 grams of gold surged by Rs 6,000, reaching Rs 996,000 in 24K, Rs 913,000 in 22K, and Rs 747,000 in 18K.
In terms of individual gram prices, the cheapest gold was priced at Rs 7,740 for 1 gram of 18K, followed by Rs 9,130 for 22K, and Rs 9,960 for 24K.
Outlook
With geopolitical tensions continuing to influence market sentiment and the impact of global trade agreements taking effect, gold prices in India are expected to show cautious movements in the coming days. Investors will be closely monitoring the fluctuations in the US dollar and Treasury yields, as these will play a significant role in determining gold’s performance in the short term.
