Gold prices in India remained firm above the ₹1 lakh mark on Monday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and developments surrounding US trade tariffs continued to drive investor sentiment. The market reaction follows the US airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites, which have raised fears of a broader regional conflict.
As of Monday morning, the 24-carat gold price stood at ₹1,00,750 per 10 grams, while the 100-gram price was ₹10,07,500. 22-carat gold was priced at ₹92,340 per 10 grams and ₹9,23,400 per 100 grams, while 18-carat gold was quoted at ₹75,550 and ₹7,55,500, respectively.
Despite a global pullback in precious metals last week amid a stronger US dollar, Indian gold prices have risen 3.5% across carats in June 2025, supported by safe-haven demand.
Expert Commentary: Volatility Ahead
“While the Federal Reserve pushed back expectations of an imminent rate cut, geopolitical tensions—particularly the Iran-Israel conflict—are limiting the downside in gold,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities. “Safe-haven demand remains strong amid ongoing uncertainty.”
Looking ahead, Trivedi noted that US trade tariffs and Middle East developments will remain key triggers. “If tensions ease or US involvement lessens, gold could come under pressure. Renewed conflict, however, will support prices,” he said. Trivedi expects gold to trade in a volatile range of ₹97,500 to ₹1,00,000 in the near term.
Silver Prices and MCX Market Action
Silver prices in India also corrected last week, though they remain elevated.
- 1 kg silver: ₹1,09,900
- 100 grams: ₹10,990
- 10 grams: ₹1,099
On the MCX, gold futures (August 2025) were priced at ₹99,096 per 10 grams, down ₹13 or 0.01%. In contrast, silver futures (July 2025) rose ₹51 or 0.05%, closing at ₹1,06,275 per 1 kg on June 20.
SMC Global Outlook: Institutional Demand Rising
In its weekly report, SMC Global Securities highlighted the pressure on gold prices due to dollar strength and a revised gold forecast by Citi Bank, which lowered its target from $3,500 to $3,300 per ounce. However, the overall outlook remains bullish.
The report noted a record-high 95% of global central banks expect gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, up from 81% last year. Additionally, 43% plan to expand their gold holdings—a significant jump from 29% in 2024. More central banks are also choosing to store gold domestically, rising to 59% in 2025 from 41% in 2024.
Silver Outperforms as Investor Flows Shift
Silver has outpaced gold in recent months, leading to a sharp decline in the gold-silver ratio from 107:1 in April to 92:1 in June. According to SMC, silver ETFs have attracted more investor inflows than gold ETFs for three straight months, a first in over two years.
In India, silver ETF inflows in May were nearly three times those of gold ETFs, pushing total holdings to 1,200 tonnes in 2025.
Price Projections: June 23–27 Trading Week
For the upcoming week, SMC projects continued volatility in both gold and silver prices due to geopolitical instability:
- Gold: ₹93,000 to ₹1,02,000
- Silver: ₹1,02,000 to ₹1,20,000
- COMEX Gold: $3,250 to $3,500
- COMEX Silver: Targeting $40 if it holds above $37.5
Conclusion
With gold holding strong in India amid rising global tensions and robust institutional interest, all eyes remain on geopolitical developments and US economic policy. Traders can expect a volatile but upwardly supported trend, particularly if Middle East instability persists.
